rheoretro
09-13 03:47 PM
Administrator - Please delete this posting immediately. It smacks of shameless racism, and we don't want our entire entire community to be tainted by this shameless guy.
wallpaper Showing off their tone and tan
Jaime
06-16 01:16 AM
Somehow "spinster" sounds so drastic and final...
walker15
09-17 12:47 PM
Another voting going on
2011 Miley Cyrus#39; Camp Failed to
NKR
03-13 02:13 PM
Yes! on IV you are supposed to say only good things about IV (though IV is "grass-root" non-profit) but no free speech here :confused:
You are only supposed to smell and sense good things about IV and hence write only good ... but god-forbid if you write truth then IV-watchers will try to ruin your "image" by giving RED dots (IV-mileage points) and make you feel bad-guy :rolleyes:
Dude, it's not red dots, it's red squares.
You are only supposed to smell and sense good things about IV and hence write only good ... but god-forbid if you write truth then IV-watchers will try to ruin your "image" by giving RED dots (IV-mileage points) and make you feel bad-guy :rolleyes:
Dude, it's not red dots, it's red squares.
more...
stuckinmuck
05-24 01:38 PM
Does this amendment strictly apply to new H1B filings or will it also impact people with H1B and an approved I-140 but need to extend it due to retrogression?
Regarding the exodus, maybe that is their purpose. Maybe, they have enough
hi-tech workers and they don't need more. I guess we need to watch and wait and accept this as a reality.
Regarding the exodus, maybe that is their purpose. Maybe, they have enough
hi-tech workers and they don't need more. I guess we need to watch and wait and accept this as a reality.
malibuguy007
07-14 10:58 AM
Wish you all the very best for a successful rally!!!
more...
thakurrajiv
07-30 12:02 PM
You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
2010 in her spray tan could set
gsc999
07-11 01:52 AM
Excellent idea......need only be singles.....:) :)
Yes, and we will make sure flowers are yellow or white. Isn't that the color of friendship.
Yes, and we will make sure flowers are yellow or white. Isn't that the color of friendship.
more...
pan123
10-16 10:21 AM
Folks,
Can somebody please explain me, how will I know that I am a victim of FBI namecheck?
Thanks,
Can somebody please explain me, how will I know that I am a victim of FBI namecheck?
Thanks,
hair inside a tanning bed
eager_immi
07-18 10:23 AM
Can someone reserach and find out where exactly he has stated that. You cannot do that till you have proof. If you know the aprox date he said that i can look up his trascripts.
Can we also add a section that says that H1Bs also pay taxes...including medicare and SS?
Can we also add a section that says that H1Bs also pay taxes...including medicare and SS?
more...
Green.Tech
03-11 11:05 AM
If I start attacking your wife and kids on this forum you will immediately cry foul. But you want different rules for yourself. Let me take a higher road and not go down to your level.
Forum Admin,
Please put a check on this mirage guy/gal. Otherwise please give everyone a free pass to say what everyone has to say. Its not fair that you warn me in a private message but you let mirage say anything that he wants. Its ok to attack me, but my family is out of bound. If this doesn't apply on me, then it should not apply on mirage, and I should be given a free choice to attack mirage's wife and children, right? I do not intend on posting something for anyone's wife/hisband and children because that is not who I am, but I want to make sure you enforce the same rules here as you enforced on me the other day.
.
Sanju,
I am not condoning what 'mirage' said to you or any such irresponsible behavior on the forum BUT your complaints to the moderators would have carried more weight if you were behaving in a modest and civil way yourself. Of late, you leave no stone unturned to write flaming messages to piss off others on this forum. All this is super surprising to me because I remember you used to write really good and informative posts. It's like you suddenly lost it or that the other sanju was someone else!
Let's not all fight among ourselves. We have so many other better things to do!
Green.Tech
Forum Admin,
Please put a check on this mirage guy/gal. Otherwise please give everyone a free pass to say what everyone has to say. Its not fair that you warn me in a private message but you let mirage say anything that he wants. Its ok to attack me, but my family is out of bound. If this doesn't apply on me, then it should not apply on mirage, and I should be given a free choice to attack mirage's wife and children, right? I do not intend on posting something for anyone's wife/hisband and children because that is not who I am, but I want to make sure you enforce the same rules here as you enforced on me the other day.
.
Sanju,
I am not condoning what 'mirage' said to you or any such irresponsible behavior on the forum BUT your complaints to the moderators would have carried more weight if you were behaving in a modest and civil way yourself. Of late, you leave no stone unturned to write flaming messages to piss off others on this forum. All this is super surprising to me because I remember you used to write really good and informative posts. It's like you suddenly lost it or that the other sanju was someone else!
Let's not all fight among ourselves. We have so many other better things to do!
Green.Tech
hot every intention of tanning
insbaby
11-03 05:27 PM
Only 582 people waiting. Why can't USCIS approve all of them over night? :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
EB3 - 2006
EB3 - 2006
more...
house #39;Curtis,#39; failed to
like_watching_paint_dry
04-28 12:06 AM
Dang! I need to hire a secretary to track all the stuff that N-400 needs :(
tattoo tanning and punching,
rajesh4
01-10 05:16 PM
I totally agree with pcs and IamWithImmiVoice. Sounds like a deluge of letters to everyone that matters is one of the better ways to move ahead. Shall do that today itself. Would be great if a good number of us could do the same. As IamWithImmiVoice said very correctly, "Lets be all a part of the core team and not get an opportunity to say that the core team is not doing enough "
very well said!!
I wrote letters to Charles Oppenheim who release the VISA Bulletin about not using the VISA Spill Over.. I think this is the best option today to make a lot of noise by writing letters and there is a good chance that he will take notice an d release the spill over.... I urge all to write 2 - 4 letters to him ASAP so that we can see some action before next bulletin...
See the address... Calling will not hurt eother...
Mr.Charles Oppenheim
2201 C Street Northwest
Washington, DC 20520-0099
(202) 647-4000
very well said!!
I wrote letters to Charles Oppenheim who release the VISA Bulletin about not using the VISA Spill Over.. I think this is the best option today to make a lot of noise by writing letters and there is a good chance that he will take notice an d release the spill over.... I urge all to write 2 - 4 letters to him ASAP so that we can see some action before next bulletin...
See the address... Calling will not hurt eother...
Mr.Charles Oppenheim
2201 C Street Northwest
Washington, DC 20520-0099
(202) 647-4000
more...
pictures Back In The Tanning Booth!
cinqsit
01-17 02:28 PM
hey snathan
how about a addnl category in the survey
people who are not on h1 but willing to contribute
I am sure there will be some ;-)
cinqsit
how about a addnl category in the survey
people who are not on h1 but willing to contribute
I am sure there will be some ;-)
cinqsit
dresses Lifequot;EDIT: epic fail on
leoindiano
10-29 11:28 AM
caliguy,
i sent you a PM for letter.
Vikki,
my case is similar to yours. RD august 3rd 2007. PD Nov 19th 2004.
I recently found that my case is pending review again. It was assigned to IO on sept 17th, got a FP notice, then it went back to storage again.
I called last week and opened SR. today called POJ twice and asked them to send a request to assign to IO, both times IO said, will do it. Not sure, if they are really doing it. Because, they dont give you any tracking number. I will keep calling them.
i sent you a PM for letter.
Vikki,
my case is similar to yours. RD august 3rd 2007. PD Nov 19th 2004.
I recently found that my case is pending review again. It was assigned to IO on sept 17th, got a FP notice, then it went back to storage again.
I called last week and opened SR. today called POJ twice and asked them to send a request to assign to IO, both times IO said, will do it. Not sure, if they are really doing it. Because, they dont give you any tracking number. I will keep calling them.
more...
makeup What?!?! :( fail
aviko21
09-29 02:56 AM
well don;t wanna scare you but this guy might be going for everything!
i mean he is not only going to give the current petition a thump but wants to send your old one down the drain too!
It all might be nothing if you think everything is correct: meaning there is no fraud on your application and your employer is not blacklisted.
Please consult a lawyer raher than worry yourself crazy to find out more.
Good luck
( in think that answers your question 1&3, for the 2 nd question regarding what will happen to your current petition, I hope he doesn;t mess with those cases too)
Sincerely hope i was able to help!
i mean he is not only going to give the current petition a thump but wants to send your old one down the drain too!
It all might be nothing if you think everything is correct: meaning there is no fraud on your application and your employer is not blacklisted.
Please consult a lawyer raher than worry yourself crazy to find out more.
Good luck
( in think that answers your question 1&3, for the 2 nd question regarding what will happen to your current petition, I hope he doesn;t mess with those cases too)
Sincerely hope i was able to help!
girlfriend Tanning (say, more than once a
diptam
05-24 01:39 PM
Guys , I want to setup a poll for finding out how many of us would leave US if this bill passes w/o our provisions....how to setup a poll ...can some one set it up..
Say how many will be Forced to Leave after it passes ??? Remember we are kicked out now -- we will circle back with them after 3-4 years at low cost high tech hubs like Bangalore/Shanghai !!!!
Say how many will be Forced to Leave after it passes ??? Remember we are kicked out now -- we will circle back with them after 3-4 years at low cost high tech hubs like Bangalore/Shanghai !!!!
hairstyles that we may fail in the
sparklinks
07-20 12:50 PM
Signed by R.WILLIAMS at NSC For any one?
Mine also received by R. WILLIAMS on July 2nd at 7:55 AM.
Mine also received by R. WILLIAMS on July 2nd at 7:55 AM.
singhsa3
03-13 01:06 PM
Folks,
This my copyright and very much pertain to our situation:
*********************
I left my world in search of prosperity
The prosperity is taking an eternity
My struggle is long and daunting
Making it more and more frustrating
Life at times seems uncontrollable
Flowing with the time unstoppable
Graying hairs testify for the feeling
Fat belly making me further unappealing
Sometimes I think of going back
Try to gather the courage that I lack
But the world I left is not the same any more.
And the world I am in, has lost its lure.
I am on the crossroad of my life
One is forward, one is left and other is right.
I don’t like the choices shown
May be I would have to create a world of my own
***************
Thanks
This my copyright and very much pertain to our situation:
*********************
I left my world in search of prosperity
The prosperity is taking an eternity
My struggle is long and daunting
Making it more and more frustrating
Life at times seems uncontrollable
Flowing with the time unstoppable
Graying hairs testify for the feeling
Fat belly making me further unappealing
Sometimes I think of going back
Try to gather the courage that I lack
But the world I left is not the same any more.
And the world I am in, has lost its lure.
I am on the crossroad of my life
One is forward, one is left and other is right.
I don’t like the choices shown
May be I would have to create a world of my own
***************
Thanks
maristella61
01-31 10:52 AM
Thanks for the thread. I just voted ! Everyone else please do the same !
